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Israel's strike on Iran caused oil prices to spike, sparking fears of rising inflation. But US inflation is more impacted by strong domestic demand than by oil prices, an economist told Bloomberg TV. Oil prices gained as much as 4% following reports of the attack before later subsiding. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that's a robust economy," Chaar told Bloomberg. "I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy," Chaar said.
Persons: , Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier, Jerome Powell, Chaar Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed, Bloomberg TV, Federal, Services, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Iran, Israel, , Swiss, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should explore this 'once in a generation' investment opportunity: Lombard OdierJohn Woods of Lombard Odier explains why he sees opportunity in investment grade bonds, especially as central banks get closer to cutting interest rates.
Persons: Lombard, John Woods, Lombard Odier
Expect ECB to cut rates between now and June, strategist says
  + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect ECB to cut rates between now and June, strategist saysBill Papadakis, macro strategist at Lombard Odier, also discusses the Swiss central bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and the outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Persons: Bill Papadakis, Lombard Odier Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: Swiss, U.S .
Currently, many personal-use products in supermarkets, such as body wash, conditioners, and other hygiene products, use a lot of single-use plastics. "It creates so much plastic waste, and shipping water for these products also creates a lot of CO2 emissions," Grange told Business Insider. This reduces water waste, which would otherwise be required to manufacture and transport these products. Amid a tougher funding environment for D2C startups in the past two years, Grange told BI that 900.care's "growth economics and product-market fit" helped them to secure funding. Check out the 16-slide pitch deck used to secure the fresh funding.
Persons: Aymeric Grange, Grange Organizations: Lombard Odier, White Star Capital, Business, Grange, Lombard Locations: Paris, Lombard, France
Read previewOn Monday, Chinese real-estate giant Evergrande was ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate after two years in a debt crisis. The court has appointed Alvarez and Marsal as liquidator to manage the company, Evergrande said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. So, protecting Evergrande's offshore investors probably isn't in Beijing's favor, because it could spur further speculation in the market, Møller added. Offshore creditors are owed $25 billion, the Hong Kong court document showed, per CNN. This is because liquidators appointed by Hong Kong's courts are unlikely to have much power over Evergrande's mainland assets, Hong added.
Persons: , Evergrande, Alvarez, Marsal, Emil Møller, Møller, there's, Xi Jinping's, Fern Wang, Wang, Hao Hong, liquidators, Hong, Siu Shawn Organizations: Service, Business, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Steno Research, Lombard, KT Capital Group, CNN, Grow Investment, China Evergrande Group, Reuters, Century Business Herald, Hengda Real Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, China, Denmark, Beijing's, homebuyers, Swiss, People's Republic of China, Hengda
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHosting COP28 in UAE is an opportunity and a risk, says Lombard OdierThomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, discusses his expectations for COP28 and explains why financing costs have increased in the energy sector.
Persons: Lombard Odier Thomas Hohne, Lombard Odier Organizations: Lombard Locations: UAE
Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.
Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan
A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's
Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season isn't going as expected: Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset ManagementFlorian Ielpo, head of macroeconomics at Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset Management, discusses the outlook for U.S. and European markets.
Persons: Florian Ielpo Organizations: Management
Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London
REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Global stocks tick up; U.S. futures riseBond yields tumble again but remain highOil prices steady after rising on Israel-Hamas warLONDON/SINGAPORE, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged higher on Wednesday while bond yields dropped again as investors waited for minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation figures. Meanwhile, oil prices were little changed as traders kept an eye on the conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. The MSCI All World stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.21% on Wednesday, after rising 1% in the previous session. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.26% after the stock index (.SPX) climbed 0.52% on Tuesday. Global stocks, which had been on the slide since early August, have rallied for the last few sessions.
Persons: Dow Jones, I'm, Florian Ielpo, Arthur van Slooten, Raphael Bostic, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, LONDON, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Lombard, Global, Investors, Treasury, Societe Generale, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, SINGAPORE, Palestinian, Nashville, Gaza, Brent, China, London, Singapore
Reuters GraphicsThe broader STOXX 600 (.STOXX) is up by 7% this year, meaning retailers are outperforming by the most on record. The snag is that this stellar run has been partly built on investors unwinding bearish bets, or short positions, on retail stocks, after last year's pessimism proved overdone. This means retail stocks might not see as many willing buyers as earlier this year. Jones expects retail stocks to fall in the second half of the year. JPMorgan downgraded the grocery retail sector this month and flagged the prospect of price declines going into 2024.
Persons: Inditex, unwinding, Benjamin Jones, Jones, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, WH Smith, Alexandre Bompard, LSEG, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reuters, Macro, Multi, Management, Carrefour, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Zara, bullish, LSEG, Britain
World shares (.MIWD00000PUS) were up 0.3% in European trading. European stocks, led by technology shares and China-exposed automakers, also rose. But the uncomfortable message from Jackson Hole may mean a protracted higher inflation than market bulls might have hoped, said the note. Figures on European Union inflation this week may also be instrumental in whether the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to hike next month. Oil prices drew some support from the storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico and China support.
Persons: Issei Kato, Florian Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Lombard, Ielpo, Jackson, Christine Lagarde, Ben Broadbent, Kazuo Ueda, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Stephen Coates, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Nikkei, U.S, REUTERS, Companies, payrolls, China PMI, China, Nasdaq, FTSE, China Evergrande, HK, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Lombard, Traders, Federal, Fed, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Beijing, Generali, Hollywood, Friday's, Gulf of Mexico
Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's July CPI number could show 'outright deflation,' strategist saysHomin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, discusses the company's expectations for China's July consumer price index and says the country is facing increasingly challenging demographic and geopolitical problems.
Persons: Homin Lee, Lombard Odier
Logos of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 20, 2023. In Switzerland, up to 10,000 jobs could be affected with Zurich bearing the brunt if UBS goes ahead with its indicated preferred option of absorbing Credit Suisse and cutting overlapping jobs and operations. "The large banks have many highly paid very specialized roles, where frankly there is very little demand in the market outside UBS and Credit Suisse," he said. Job cuts at Credit Suisse will hit Swiss and foreign nationals on its payroll, which may mean some have to leave Switzerland if they can't find a new job. Swiss banks have been looking in particular to snap up relationship managers with strong client relationships and solid books.
Persons: Denis Balibouse, headhunter Fredy Hausammann, Hausammann, Adecco, Balz Stueckelberger, Sergio Ermotti, Lombard Odier, Marco Arnold, Giorgio Pradelli, Pradelli, EFG, Noele Illien, Susan Fenton Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Reuters, State Secretariat, Economic Affairs, Arbeitgeber Banker, Swiss, EFG's, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Zug
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London
U.S. stocks have made big gains this year, but the performance across global stocks has been uneven so far. So where will global stocks go in the second half of the year? Five of the strategists polled expect global markets to fall, while another five say the stocks will beat their U.S. counterparts. Global market bulls Those who expect global stocks to beat the U.S. are most bullish on the U.K., Europe and Japan. Global market bears Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, predicts that Europe's Stoxx 600 will end the year at 390 — a nearly 15% decline from Monday's close.
Persons: Christian Abuide, Karim Chedid, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Andreas Bruckner, Mark Haefele, Bruckner, Roger Lee, Lee, Haefele, Carrier Organizations: CNBC Pro, U.S, Lombard, iShares, BofA Global Research, UBS Global Wealth, Nasdaq, UBS, RBC Wealth Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."
Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA
The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.
Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall; Meta Stock Rises Premarket
  + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Government-bond yields rose in the U.S. and Europe, reflecting recent statements by major central banks that they will keep raising interest rates to curtail inflation. Weakening activity in the services sector is a big reason for the pressure on global markets today, said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. U.S. stock futures fell. Government-bond yields rose. Yields rose in Germany, the U.K. and France, too.
Persons: Samy Chaar, , Dow, Hang Seng Organizations: Services, Lombard, Nasdaq, Overseas, Nikkei Locations: Government, U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Germany, France, Brent, Iran
What could break as interest rates rise?
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.
Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine
The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. At first glance, Asian stocks as a whole have more modest gains so far this year compared with their U.S. and European counterparts. But Asia is more economically diverse than Europe and the U.S., and there are still bright spots in the region, especially in Japan and South Korea. In April, the BOJ announced it will conduct a "a broad-perspective review of [its] monetary policy," which could span 12-18 months. But Lombard Odier still expects the BOJ to end the yield curve control policy before this review is over.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Nomura, Daniela Gombert, bode, Gombert, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Lombard Odier, Morgan Stanley, Google's Bard, Ernie Bot, Lombard, Marco Barresi, Barresi Organizations: Bank of Japan, Afp, Getty, U.S, Asia, Nomura, Nikkei, Bank of, Private, U.S . Federal, Chips, Lombard Odier Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Europe, U.S, Japan, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Bank of Japan, Indonesia, A.I, OpenAI, Taiwan, China
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. Wall Street futures were up, pointing to another session of gains after the S&P 500 rose for the fourth week in a row last week. "Obviously if we have a big negative surprise on inflation and inflation comes in much hotter than expected, that is going to challenge central banks and the Fed in its 'pause' strategy," he said. Money markets are pricing in around a 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: Europe's, Samy Chaar, Lombard, Elizabeth Howcroft, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Wall, Nasdaq, Investors, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong
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